2008 will become another year in which we experience every moment freshly unknowing, awed by reality.

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Insights from Lost & Found

I wonder what I'll find out next!

This is Matthew Dominic Hunter's 'blog.

 

Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Measuring the Money Supply

The website of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ offers 148 different statistics related to the money supply (of US Dollars). That's a lot of different ways to count the money supply. I've been studying them for a while and I've had difficulty figuring out which statistic is the best to use.

The simplest measure of money is the amount of cash in circulation. As of February 1, there were about 786 billion US dollars (paper bills and coins) in circulation. The problem with this statistic is that nowadays most economic transactions don't use cash. Most economic transactions use checks, credit cards, debit/ATM cards, or electronic funds transfer. For example, I spend only about 5% of my salary in cash each month.

All these non-cash money transactions require the intermediation of a bank. To back up all those non-cash transactions, banks keep cash reserves in their vaults and electronic reserves on deposit with a Federal Reserve Bank. Each night, all the banks in the US tally up their total deposits and withdrawals and exchange their reserves with other banks so everything adds up correctly in the morning. As of February 1, total US bank reserves were $45 billion.

If you add total cash in circulation to the electronic bank reserves at Federal Reserve Banks, you get what's called the monetary base. That's how much real money there is floating around within the economy at any given moment, either inside or outside of a bank. As of February 1, there was about $804 billion in the monetary base. The Federal Reserve calls this total "M0".

Most of us have checking accounts. We think of these checking accounts as money, but banks are required to keep only 3% of checking account balances in their reserves. If everybody tried to cash all of their checking accounts at the same time, banks could only pay out a few cents on the dollar. As of February 1, there was about $621 billion in checking accounts, plus another $7 billion in traveler's checks. If we add together the currency in circulation and all the checking accounts, there was about $1361 billion available to consumers for spending on goods and services via cash or check. The Federal Reserve calls this total "M1".

A lot of us also have savings accounts. Although you can withdraw cash from your savings account at any time, federal regulations limit the number of electronic payments you can make from your savings account (via check, card, or ETF) each month. A savings account is supposed to be a place where you store extra cash that you don't need from day to day. Banks are not required to keep any portion of savings account balances in their reserves! As of February 1, there was about $3624 billion in savings accounts, plus another $728 billion in money market funds.

In addition to savings accounts, some of us have put our extra cash into certificates of deposit (a.k.a. "CDs"). When you buy a CD you agree to let the bank have your cash for a specific amount of time, usually six months or a year, but sometimes for as long as five years. If you need your money before then, the bank can charge a penalty. As of February 1, there was about $1002 billion in CDs.

Adding up all of the above, cash, checking, savings, and CDs, as of February 1, there was nearly $7 trillion US Dollars available for purchases of goods and services, if people wanted to spend it. The Federal Reserve calls this total "M2".

Wealthier people and big businesses sometimes have types of bank accounts that aren't listed above. The Federal Reserve has decided that these types of accounts aren't relevant for the purpose of tracking the money supply, probably because they aren't usually used to fund purchases of goods and services. Until recently, the Federal Reserve tracked these accounts along with those listed above and called the grand total "M3". As of February 1, there was about $10 trillion in the M3 category, but the Federal Reserve ceased publishing the M3 statistic last week.

Another way of counting the money supply is to add together the cash in circulation, plus all the various kinds of US Dollar bank accounts that can be cashed out without penalty or delay. The Federal reserve calls this total "MZM" or "zero maturity money". As of February 1, there was $6875 billion of MZM available for immediate spending.

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So which measure of the money supply is the best for predicting how the economy will behave? I don't think anybody really knows. But most of the things we call money are really part of a complicated Ponzi scheme played by the banking system in which a bank takes your money, gives you credit for that money in some sort of account, and then lends out 97+% of that money to somebody else.

If you want to measure how much real money there is inside the system, then you have to look to the monetary base (M0). If you want to measure how much banking bullshit there is inside the system, then see how much more money is added by either M2 or MZM. Right now there's about $800 billion in real money, and another $6 trillion in additional bullshit money.

Then again, it's all bullshit money, because the Federal Reserve can print more anytime it wants ;-)

Written by Matthew Dominic Hunter @ 07:57 AM

Sunday, March 12, 2006

Rules for appearing like an effective Big Bad Big Boss

First, make sure that the people below you "encourage" their coworkers and minions to attend your listening session, and have them also "encourage" their coworkers and minions to further "encourage" others to attend, etc. Assistant-leader-types should physically wander around 10 minutes before the starting time to "remind" people of the event.

Arrive 10 minutes late, not so late that people get pissed, but late enough so that people realize you are a busy person who has tried his best to arrive close to the starting time.

Thank everybody for "allowing" you to appear before them.

Announce that, "I'm here to listen to you," and mention that, "I brought no prepared remarks today." In fact, arrive with absolutely nothing in your hands! Your assistant placed your notes on the podium before anybody showed up.

Speak softly, so everybody has to be absolutely still and quiet to hear what you are saying. If somebody arrives late, greet her by name with a pleasant smile. If somebody makes a loud noise, ask him by name if everything is all right.

Spend 30 minutes speaking informally while consulting the notes your assistant placed on the podium. Establish two priorities for your tenure as the Big Bad Big Boss and show how everything that happens connects back to those two priorities.

After delivering your non-prepared remarks, open the floor for questions. Ask people how "we" are doing, point out that the organization is not "me", but "us".

When somebody asks a question, encourage her to speak loudly by casually placing your hand behind your ear. Whatever your answer might be, connect it back to your two priorities.

Inject gentle irony into your responses -- it helps people to laugh despite the dry subject matter at hand.

Praise your assistants, and their assistants, and the entire organization, while stressing your high expectations for even more high quality work. Point out that your two priorities are opportunities for each person to become more productive and better at his job.

Continue taking questions. Continue taking questions. If, eventually, nobody else speaks up, insist that there must be more questions in the audience, and wait. Eventually the people who already asked questions will ask even more questions, and these people will become unpopular -- because everybody else is hungry, or has to go to the bathroom, or wants her second cup of coffee. Meanwhile, you appear more than willing to listen to everybody in the group, even the unpopular people ;-)

Finally, thank the group again for allowing you to visit. Accept their applause graciously.

Written by Matthew Dominic Hunter @ 09:11 AM

The Media-Saturated Mobocracy

Living in a modern, media-saturated democracy requires me to become a wind-up absolutist dictator, with opinions about every human activity occurring within earth's gravity well, and beyond.

Modern media organizations fuel this megalomania, by offering me immense torrents of data from multitudinous hotspots around the globe, combined with public opinion polls regarding every possible topic. They want me hooked to the drug of (apparent) omniscience so I'll come back for more. The Internet is even worse, with real-time unscientific opinion polls accompanying stories about cultural controversies, requiring me to vote early and often to sway the undecided in my favor and smite my enemies.

Along with the daily menu of terrorist bombings, imprecise economic statistics, and political paranoia, I'm also tossed News You Can Use, including the latest research on extending my own life by adding yet another drug, vitamin, mineral, vegetable, animal, commercial product, relationship, or exercise routine to my life, while removing yet another drug, vitamin, mineral, vegetable, animal, commercial product, relationship, or exercise routine from my life.

Squeezed between all the news items I find virtually unlimited paid advertising — the real reason media exist, the source of their profits and editorial control. The average person views thousands of advertisements each day, advertisements designed to make us feel incomplete, inferior, unattractive, dissatisfied, threatened, and empty.

These democratized media lead us to feel both omniscient, and insecure. We are a mob of unhappy gods.

Written by Matthew Dominic Hunter @ 05:35 AM

I conversed with the ghost of U.G. Krishnamurti during my lunch break ...

You are not different from the animal. You don't want to accept that fact. The only difference is in how you think. Thinking is there in the animal also, but it has become very complex in the case of humans. That's the difference. Don't tell me that animals do not think; they do think. But in humans it has become a very complex structure, and the problem is how to free yourself from this structure and use it only as an instrument to function in this world. It has no other use at all. It has only a contingent value, to communicate something, to function in the workaday world. "Where is the subway station? Where can I get tomatoes? Where is the shopping mall?" That's all. Not philosophical concepts—those have no meaning at all. Wanting anything other than your basic needs—food, clothing, and shelter—that is where your self-deception begins, and there is no end to your self-deception along that path. So all this thinking has no meaning at all. It is just wearing you out.

I agree with you, thinking is a very tiresome thing to do all the time. It is wearing me out, so naturally I seek methods to end it, to travel without language.

It is wearing you out, and all the methods that you use are adding more and more to that, unfortunately. All the techniques and systems are adding to that. There is nothing you can do to end thinking.

All righty then! So how/when does it stop?

"How not to think?" is your real question. Do you know what that question implies? You want some way, some method, some system, some technique, and you still continue to think.

Um ... but, I don't want to think as much. Perhaps you could suggest a better "real" question.

I am not sure that you do not want to think as much. You see, you must come to a point where you say to yourself, "I am fed up with this kind of thing." Nobody can push you there. Nothing can push you there. Most people never get there, because they aren't fed up with thinking yet.

There is no way.

Written by Matthew Dominic Hunter @ 04:59 AM

 

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