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My first-draft model for 2019-nCoV, 1/31/2020


There are 20x as many cases as are presently confirmed, because most cases are mild and unremarkable.

Cases are doubling or tripling weekly outside of quarantine, because each person on average infects 2-3 others over the course of a week. The virus has already spread far too widely to be contained.

If a case will be fatal, on average there's a week between official diagnosis and death, depending on how long it takes for the patient to seek medical attention.

But fatality rate is only 0.2-0.3% --> mainly among elders and people with chronic conditions.

First death outside of China occurs within a week or two -- first half of February. Then deaths outside of China double or triple each week for a while, but this rate of increase will steadily decrease over the next two years, perhaps with seasonal peaks during winter months or after travel holidays or when kids return to school. Vaccine widely available in rich countries by end of 2020. Total global deaths after two years in the low millions, most of these deaths unrecorded in third-world countries. Then the virus is endemic in the global population like the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus -- with vaccination recommended for people 50+ or with chronic conditions.


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